Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 2.129636 2.554685 3.031840 3.605572 4.275016 5.029701 5.943095
2025-12-14 1.493753 2.023083 2.682382 3.557373 4.680739 6.066386 7.895691
2025-12-21 1.122206 1.682961 2.444263 3.539055 5.055830 7.063068 9.896008
2025-12-28 0.942459 1.539655 2.410568 3.747835 5.717470 8.473244 12.570959
2026-01-04 0.786105 1.387932 2.323895 3.847023 6.213716 9.688111 15.089859
2026-01-11 0.681098 1.289557 2.291674 4.008080 6.802213 11.077422 17.981766
2026-01-18 0.570890 1.156949 2.177081 4.011765 7.132612 12.096035 20.399342
2026-01-25 0.462334 1.002864 1.996780 3.871960 7.200623 12.695105 22.201062
2026-02-01 0.375650 0.870653 1.830392 3.725887 7.229171 13.217201 23.906552
2026-02-08 0.321506 0.791774 1.748513 3.717474 7.489764 14.139517 26.340996
2026-02-15 0.278247 0.726486 1.681342 3.724545 7.773519 15.119181 28.945395
2026-02-22 0.237581 0.657860 1.595210 3.679793 7.949899 15.916762 31.286903
2026-03-01 0.191775 0.567230 1.448499 3.493475 7.836934 16.190787 32.742553
2026-03-08 0.164131 0.515547 1.379371 3.461649 8.028887 17.051805 35.351628
2026-03-15 0.141888 0.472621 1.322774 3.448382 8.255715 17.997027 38.193159
2026-03-22 0.134123 0.468543 1.359692 3.653857 8.970168 19.960844 43.144526
2026-03-29 0.121820 0.448037 1.351591 3.751280 9.457313 21.505457 47.385210
2026-04-05 0.113412 0.437472 1.367532 3.908889 10.094836 23.407860 52.475403
2026-04-12 0.099962 0.407052 1.324483 3.912538 10.378495 24.591502 56.188593
2026-04-19 0.083668 0.362175 1.232425 3.775863 10.315692 25.028434 58.387017
2026-04-26 0.069746 0.321249 1.143472 3.633061 10.219593 25.380292 60.425640
2026-05-03 0.061447 0.298808 1.105818 3.624837 10.453644 26.480702 64.140254
2026-05-10 0.054557 0.279764 1.075144 3.631750 10.726200 27.688435 68.170294